Dear Friends

For those of you who don’t know me, and that would be the entire world save a handful of folks, this is my third decade of working on global warming, approaching the fourth decade on the environment generally.

I was lucky enough to work for the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works during the days when the United States was still the world leader in facing up to the threats of air and water pollution, poisonous chemicals, and the full range of other challenges. The nation has long since abandoned that leadership role. While the Germans, Swedes and others have managed to fill some of the resulting vacuum, the world is now essentially drifting, somewhat like a rudderless boat. That is evident here in Bali.

This the 13th “Conference of the Parties,” or COP, where the nations of the world gather to supposedly hammer out solutions to global warming. The meetings are actually a succession of self-congratulatory photo-ops by politicians with little understanding of the imminent and grave danger posed by global warming. There are at least a half-dozen positive feedbacks–that is, changes caused by warming that then themselves increase warming, so that the hotter it gets, the hotter it will get–that have kicked in already, meaning that the planet is rapidly approaching one or more “tipping points” beyond which survival of civilization is unlikely. These include increasing acidification of the oceans, melting and warming in the Arctic, global bleaching of coral, a 30 percent decline in phytoplankton, massive thawing of tundra in Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, and the retreat of glaciers worldwide, to name but a few.

Yet nowhere in the literature gathered from the booths lining the hallways in Bali can the words tipping point be found, nor is there discussion of emission reductions next year and the year after. The time frames for action are couched in decades.

This has been the tenor of the Conferences of the Parties since the ill-fated Kyoto meeting, where the United States demanded emissions trading as the price of agreeing to an international protocol, then welched on the deal. The Kyoto Protocol is now on its way out, and the Bali meeting is being promoted as the place where the foundation will be laid for the successor. That may well happen, but if so, the son- (or daughter-) of-Kyoto is likely to be little improvement, if any.

In reality, the corporations of the world, especially those in the United States, have the international process well in hand. One testament to that is the very name employed: the “Framework Convention on Climate Change.” Almost universally, politicians and most others talk of “climate change,” not “global warming”. Why?

Well, in the case of the United States, Republican pollster Frank Luntz ran focus groups and polls of the various terms for describing the phenomenon and found that Americans found climate change a far less ominous term than global warming. His advice to Republicans: watch your language, and talk about climate change, not global warming.

ExxonMobil, Chevron and the U.S. oil companies, together with coals miners and sellers and a variety of electricity generators like the Southern Company, have actively conspired with oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Nigeria to preclude international agreement to really deal with global warming. There are cars that will travel 100 miles on a single gallon of fuel and powerplants that will squeeze 92 percent of the energy from a pound of coal. But if that happened, sales of coal and oil would drop by two-thirds or more. So, it’s not going to happen.

Later in the week California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and World Bank President Robert Zoellick will show up in Bali and suck all of the political oxygen out of the air. This is an undeniably positive sign, because each says some of the right things when it comes to global warming, and even though a case can be made that each may be more motivated by politics than substance in crafting truly effective solutions. Schwarzenegger, for example, insists on carbon-equivalent trading–something heavy campaign contributor Chevron wants desperately–even though it has failed horrribly when tried elsewhere. Still, to all appearances, both are well intended. But, as the old saying goes, that’s what the road to Hell–that place where,like the planet,it’s really, really hot–is paved with: good intentions.

Re tundra: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4141348.stm
The huge expanse of western Siberia is thawing for the first time since its formation, 11,000 years ago.

The area, which is the size of France and Germany combined, could release billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

This could potentially act as a tipping point, causing global warming to snowball, scientists fear.

Re Arctic warming and melting: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/03/070330-warming-arctic.html

Arctic Melting Linked to Human Causes, Long-Term Review Finds

Brian Handwerk
for National Geographic News

March 30, 2007

The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years is the result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions combined with natural cycles, according to a new study.

The loss of ice will likely change water temperatures and affect the circulation of ocean currents, which may alter climates around the world, the study suggests.

Re ocean acidification: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v437/n7059/abs/nature04095.html

Article

Nature 437, 681-686 (29 September 2005) | doi:10.1038/nature04095

Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

Today’s surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons.

Re phytoplankton decline: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020801plankton.html
PHYTOPLANKTON IN NORTHERN OCEANS HAVE DECLINED FROM 1980s LEVELS

Phytoplankton Press Release

Introduction

A check up of the Earth’s planetary health reveals that the lowest rung in the ocean food chain is shrinking. For the past 20 years (early 1980s to present), phytoplankton concentrations declined as much as 30 percent in northern oceans. Scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say warmer ocean temperatures and low winds may be depriving the tiny ocean plants of necessary nutrients. However, they still do not know if the loss of phytoplankton is a long-term trend or a climate oscillation.

Re coral bleaching: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060515232529.htm

Global Warming May Have Damaged Coral Reefs Forever

ScienceDaily (May 16, 2006) — Global warming has had a more devastating effect on some of the world’s finest coral reefs than previously assumed, suggests the first report to show the long-term impact of sea temperature rise on reef coral and fish communities.

 

Re glacier retreat: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/05/sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm

See it for yourself

In pictures: How the world is changing